paulphare, Author at Cromwell Property Group - Page 2 of 2
A person typing on a laptop

Research and Insights

December 9, 2019

The US$80 trillion world economy at a glance

The infographic below shows the composition of the US$80 trillion global economy in 2017, the most recent year in which comprehensive figures were available. In nominal terms, the US still has the largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at US$19.4 trillion, making up 24.4% of the world economy, nearly 60% larger than China at US$12.2 trillion.

However, in 2016, the International Monetary Fund called the Chinese economy the world’s largest when adjusted for purchasing power parity (which allows you to compare how much your money can buy in relative terms).

Perhaps a more telling statistic is that per capita disposable income is US$39,513 in the US and just US$2,993 in China. This more aptly illustrates just how far China has yet to go to give its citizens a similar quality of life.

The next two largest economies are Japan (US$4.9 trillion) and Germany (US$4.6 trillion). It’s India (US$2.6 trillion), however, which has now passed France and, given Brexit, probably also the UK, which is increasing the fastest. Brazil, despite its very recent economic woes, surpassed Italy in GDP rankings to take the number eight spot overall. Canada rounds out the top ten.

Australia’s GDP was US$1.32 trillion or 1.67% of the global economy, which just about puts it on par with Spain. While punching above Spain and most others in terms of GDP per capita, Australia remains a relatively small economy in global terms.

The infographic below shows the composition of the US$80 trillion global economy in 2017, the most recent year in which comprehensive figures were available. In nominal terms, the US still has the largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at US$19.4 trillion, making up 24.4% of the world economy, nearly 60% larger than China at US$12.2 trillion.

However, in 2016, the International Monetary Fund called the Chinese economy the world’s largest when adjusted for purchasing power parity (which allows you to compare how much your money can buy in relative terms).

Perhaps a more telling statistic is that per capita disposable income is US$39,513 in the US and just US$2,993 in China. This more aptly illustrates just how far China has yet to go to give its citizens a similar quality of life.

The next two largest economies are Japan (US$4.9 trillion) and Germany (US$4.6 trillion). It’s India (US$2.6 trillion), however, which has now passed France and, given Brexit, probably also the UK, which is increasing the fastest. Brazil, despite its very recent economic woes, surpassed Italy in GDP rankings to take the number eight spot overall. Canada rounds out the top ten.

Australia’s GDP was US$1.32 trillion or 1.67% of the global economy, which just about puts it on par with Spain. While punching above Spain and most others in terms of GDP per capita, Australia remains a relatively small economy in global terms.

 

Why diversify?

Australia has often been called the lucky country, given its more than 25-year run without recession. Luck, however, is not a strategy, nor is it sufficient to build a business, execute a strategy or pay distributions. Luck can run out and, diversification, whether or not it’s for personal investing or growing a business, is important.

Diversification doesn’t mean turning your back on what you know or are familiar with (Australia), but it does mean prudently assessing opportunities which can diversify investment portfolios or business income streams both by sector and by geography.

The European real estate market, for example, comprises approximately 350 million sqm of office stock, over 14 times more than the Australian equivalent. The market comprises more than 34 different individual office markets, each with more than 2 million sqm of office space.

To put it in perspective, that’s 34 different markets the size of Brisbane or Canberra that you can choose to invest in. All of these locations will have different local market dynamics, are at different points in the real estate cycle and are in differently performing countries, some of which, like Poland, currently have better prospects than Australia. Diversification matters.

 

World economy GDP by country

A person typing on a laptop

Research and Insights

December 9, 2019

The importance of catchment in retail

In Insight 27, we provided an overview of the changes currently being experienced by the retail sector globally. The retail landscape varies dramatically from country to country. However, across all borders and economies, understanding the importance of catchment is vital.

Catchment refers to the sphere of influence from which a retail location – for example, a shopping centre – is likely to draw its customers. The general concept of a retail catchment area comprises three major considerations – supply factors, demand factors and consumer interactions.

On the supply side, there is the strength of the offering in terms of a centre’s quality, age, size, location and tenant mix. Alternatively, demand factors include location, population and demographic makeup of the catchment area. The supply and demand factors, in turn, dictate consumer interactions. A centre with a better offering will draw consumers from greater distances than centres with few points of difference to its competitors.

There are, however, a number of other important catchment-related considerations. Firstly, the position of a retail centre within the hierarchy of other local retail centres. This is determined by the format and size of the centre, population density of its catchment, the competitive intensity, and how well its proposition fits the needs of the consumer base.

For example, a high-end boutique centre with luxury fashion retailers would more than likely fare poorly in a low socio-economic area.

Generally, a catchment with a large population will have a greater retail offering, to the extent it acts as an employment hub and economic driver, thereby attracting customers from a wider area. A smaller, or remote catchment, will more than likely serve a different function, be more embedded in local economies and be patronised more frequently by local communities.

In Australia, the Property Council of Australia sets out classifications for shopping centres, which are closely aligned to the concept of ‘catchment’. This is shown below.

The importance of catchment cannot be overlooked. It is vital shopping centre investors and managers understand their catchment area in terms of socioeconomic status, size and demographics, and are able to tailor their offering accordingly.

Property Council of Australia shopping centre classifications spreadsheet